It gets worse.  Most people who are in danger of dying from COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators.  50% of those put on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live.  But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number of ventilators in the United States.  Virtually no one who needed a ventilator would get one.  100% of patients who need ventilators would die if they didn't get one.  So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months.  8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die.